Weather conditions play a crucial role in the outcome of a Grand Prix. From sudden rain showers to blistering heat, every race venue presents its own unique challenges to the teams and drivers. Accurate predictions can give teams a competitive advantage, while unexpected weather can turn the race on its head. The 2023 Formula 1 calendar comprises a record-breaking twenty-three races in twenty countries across five continents — from the tropics of Southeast Asia to the deserts of the Middle East to the temperate climate of Europe.
MeteoMotorsport has analysed the climatology of each race venue on its scheduled race day in 2023 to see what weather conditions are statistically most likely at each Grand Prix this season and has compiled a list of five key things to look out for in 2023.
Temperature
Qatar is statistically most likely to be the hottest race of the season, followed closely by Singapore, Jeddah, and Abu Dhabi. However, all four races take place in the evening under floodlights so air temperatures are likely to be at the cooler end of the climatological temperature range, however, this will still mean temperatures in the mid-to-high-20s.
Like in 2022, Miami is likely to be the warmest daytime race, with its mid-afternoon start time in South Florida in early May likely to produce afternoon highs of around 29°C.
At the other end of the temperature scale, the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix is statistically likely to the coldest race of the season, while Baku’s switch back to a late-April slot sees it likely to be the second-coldest race — more on both of these races in the Five Things To Watch section below.
The Belgian, British, Dutch, and Australian Grand Prix – also known for their changeable weather conditions – follow Vegas and Baku. Each has a climatological mean daily temperature below 17°C and a maximum temperature of 18–20°C.
The climatological temperature range (average minimum to average maximum) of the scheduled race date at the nearest available weather station to each circuitPrecipitation
Brazil and Spielberg rank as climatologically the wettest races of the season, with a 45 percent risk of rain on race day. These are closely followed by Suzuka and Singapore (both at 41 percent).
Unsurprisingly, the wet weather tyres are unlikely to be needed at the Middle Eastern races in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, or Qatar. Similarly, Las Vegas’ desert climate means the race has just a less than 5 percent risk of rainfall in late November.
The climatological precipitation risk scheduled race date at the nearest available weather station to each circuitFive Things To Watch In 2023:
1. Warmer Imola
Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix, Imola, 19–21 May
A small reshuffle of the early-season European races sees Imola move from its late-April slot to late-May for 2023. The four-week shift means maximum daytime temperatures are expected to be around 4°C warmer around 13–23°C. It means the race is no longer climatologically ranked as the coldest of the season, with temperatures expected to be on par with the Austrian, Dutch, and Monaco Grand Prix. The shift also results in a slightly decreased risk of precipitation — 23 percent (2023) versus 28 percent (2022).
2. Cooler Baku
Azerbaijan Grand Prix, Baku, 28–30 April
The Azerbaijan Grand Prix on the streets of Baku moves from mid-June back to the late-April slot the race occupied in 2018 and 2019. The shift from early Summer to Spring should result in much cooler air and track temperatures. Average highs in late-April range between 12–19°C compared to 19–28°C for mid-June. A look back at the observed temperatures at the six races in the city shows a distinct split between those that took place in June and those in April:
19 June 2016 — 32.8°C
25 June 2017 — 30.6°C
29 April 2018 — 17.0°C
28 April 2019 — 21.2°C
6 June 2021 — 24.5°C
12 June 2022 — 29.0°C
Consequently, Baku is climatologically the coldest race that is to take place in daylight in 2023. The shift to Spring also results in a slightly increased climatological risk of precipitation, rising from 4 to 10 percent.
3. Wetter and Warmer Suzuka
Japanese Grand Prix, Suzuka, 22–24 September
The race at Suzuka takes place two weeks earlier in 2023 than its traditional early October slot. While a few weeks might not sound significant, climatologically, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees higher — 20–24°C (2023) compared to 17–22°C (2022) — and there will be an increased risk of precipitation — 41 percent (2023) compared to 33 percent (2022) as the race takes place closer to the wet season and has a higher risk of tropical cyclone impacts.
4. Hot and Dry Qatar
Qatar Grand Prix, Losail, 6–8 October
Following a year’s absence due to the country’s hosting of the FIFA World Cup, the Qatar Grand Prix returns to the F1 calendar in early October 2023. Air temperatures at the Losail Circuit are expected to average 31°C on race day, making it climatologically the warmest race of the year. However, the early evening race start under the floodlights means temperatures, when the lights go out, are likely to be high-20s. It is also climatologically the race with the lowest risk of precipitation at just 1 percent.
5. Chilly Vegas
Las Vegas Grand Prix, Las Vegas, 16–18 November
It’s arguably the most anticipated race of the year. The inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix takes place on a Saturday, November 18 under lights on the streets of one of the world’s most famous cities. But the VIPs should be expected to wrap up warm as it is climatologically the coldest race of the year — average daytime highs in Vegas in mid-November reach 18°C and overnight temperatures average just 8°C. Given the race start is scheduled for 22:00 local time, temperatures are likely to be hovering around 8–14°C. Expect track and tyre temperatures to be a big talking point throughout the weekend.
Climatology But Not A Forecast
This climatological analysis represents the average weather conditions over the last 30 years on the scheduled race date and does not represent a specific forecast for 2023. Real-time weather forecasts are based on an ensemble of numerical weather prediction models, which incorporate observations of air pressure, temperature, humidity, winds, and many other variables to produce the best estimate of current and future conditions in the atmosphere at a range of time horizons.For the latest Formula 1 weather forecast, visit the dedicated MeteoMotorsport F1 Weather Centre, which provides an overview of the current weather conditions, the latest six-day forecast, and real-time satellite and radar imagery of the circuit, and follow MeteoMotorsport on Twitter.
Data Analysis Disclaimer: This analysis uses climatological data of the scheduled race date of the nearest available weather station to each race venue. Note that the climatological average daily temperature represents the average of the climatological daily minimum and climatological daily maximum temperatures. While most Grand Prix take place in the mid-afternoon and therefore coincide with typically the hottest part of the day, this is not always the case, especially for those races that take place at night. The stated climatological risk of precipitation is representative of the risk across the entire 24-hour period of the day (00:00 to 23:59) of the scheduled race date and therefore may not be representative of the approximate two-hour window of the race time.
