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A Climatological Look at the 2023 MotoGP Calendar

The 2023 MotoGP season commences next weekend (Sunday 26 March) and comprises a record-breaking twenty-one races in eighteen countries and includes several meteorologically interesting locations. MeteoMotorsport has analysed the climatology of each race venue on its scheduled race day in 2023 to see what weather conditions are statistically most likely at each event this season.



The Central/Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern races — India, Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Qatar — are unsurprisingly the most likely to be the hottest races of the season with average daily highs of 28–33°C and possible highs near 35°C. Furthermore, with the exception of Qatar which takes place in the evening under floodlights, all these Grand Prix take place in the early- to mid-afternoon at likely the hottest time of day— more on three of these races in the Five Things to Watch section below.

At the other end of the temperature scale, the Valencian Grand Prix is statistically likely to be the coldest race of the season as it takes place late-November calendar in 2023 — more on this in the Five Things to Watch section below.

The Australian and French Grand Prix – also known for their changeable weather – follow Valencia as some of the coldest of the season. They each have a climatological mean daily temperature below 15°C and a maximum temperature of 15–18°C.

The climatological temperature range (average minimum to average maximum) of the scheduled race date at the nearest available weather station to each circuit.



Malaysia, Austria, and Japan rank as climatologically the races with the highest climatological risk of precipitation, with a 59, 40, and 38 percent risk of rain, respectively. These are closely followed by Germany, the Netherlands, and Australia (each at 31 or 32 percent).

Unsurprisingly, the wet weather tyres are unlikely to be needed in Qatar as its climatologically the driest race of the season with an average risk of precipitation of just 4 percent. Behind Qatar, the four races in Iberia (Valencia, Algarve, Jerez, Catalunya) are the next, with a statistical likelihood of precipitation ranging between 13–16 percent.

The climatological precipitation risk of the scheduled race date at the nearest available weather station to each circuit


Five things to look out for in 2023:

 1. Hot and Dry Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Grand Prix, Almaty, 7–9 July

The inaugural Kazakhstan Grand Prix takes place in early-July as the series touches down in a new region of the world as the Sokol International Racetrack in Central Asia joins the MotoGP calendar.

Kazakhstan experiences an extreme continental climate, with long, hot summers and cold winters. Due to its location in Central Asia, the region has a highly continental climate and large intraday and annual fluctuations in temperature. This means that temperatures in winter (December to February) are extremely cold, with national averages between -9°C and -12°C, whereas summers are hot, with average national temperatures of 22–23°C in June, July and August. Precipitation is low throughout the year, with average monthly levels of between 14–30 mm, with most of that falling as snow between October and March.

Given the existing European summer schedule and the travel arrangements needed to get to Kazakhstan, and given the summer months are the only reasonable time in which to hold the race without hostile weather conditions, series organisers opted for a calendar slot in early-July before the summer break.

Daytime temperatures in Almaty in early-July reach highs of near 30°C, which is likely to make it one of the hottest races of the season alongside the Southeast Asian races, with overnight lows of around 17°C. July is one of the region's driest months; the risk of precipitation averages around 17 percent in early-July. So, expect hot and dry conditions for the inaugural race later this year.

2. Wamer Barcelona

Catalan Grand Prix, Catalunya, 1–3 September

The Catalan Grand Prix moves to an early-September slot in 2023 to fill the gap vacated by the Aargon Grand Prix that was omitted for the first time since its introduction in 2010. Temperatures are expected to be 3–4°C warmer in early-September compared to the early-June slot the race previously held (a date that is now occupied by the F1 Spanish Grand Prix). Expect daily highs of around 27°C in Barcelona and overnight lows of 18°C.

3. Blisteringly Hot Buddh

Indian Grand Prix, Buddh, 22–24 September

The other new venue to join the MotoGP calendar in 2023 is the Buddh International Circuit in Greater Noida, India. The former home of the Formula 1 Indian Grand Prix hosts its inaugural MotoGP race in late-September.

India has a tropical monsoon climate with large regional variations in terms of rainfall and temperature. The Noida region experiences a humid subtropical climate with a hot season between April and July and a cooler season between December and February. In terms of precipitation, the wet season extends from June to September.

Daytime highs in Greater Noida in late-September average around 33°C, which makes the Indian Grand Prix climatologically likely to be the hottest race of 2023. With overnight lows of 25°C and high humidity, expected the race to be one of the most oppressive of the year. Here are the recently observed temperatures on 24 September:

24 September 2022 — 27.0°C
24 September 2021 — 34.0°C
24 September 2020 — 25.5°C
24 September 2019 — 33.3°C
24 September 2018 — 27.6°C

Furthermore, the risk of precipitation in late-September is around 20 percent, so don’t rule out the risk of a shower too.


4. Drier Indonesia

Indonesian Grand Prix, Mandalika, 13–15 October

Last year’s Indonesian Grand Prix, which took place in late-March as the second round of the 2022 season, was delayed by well over an hour due to heavy rain that left the track in an unraceable condition. The thunderstorms abated and the race eventually got underway with a reduced race distance. The race was possibly best remembered for the lightning that struck the circuit:

Lightning strikes the Mandalika Circuit at the 2022 Indonesian Grand Prix

The 2023 race moves from late-March to mid-October to align it with MotoGP’s other races in Oceania and Southeast Asia. It also shifts the race from Lombok’s wet season (roughly November to April) to the end of the drier season (roughly April to November). This means the climatological risk of precipitation reduces from 40 in 2022 to 17 percent in 2023. Despite this, the tropics can still produce heavy downpours at any time of year, so don’t rule out a repeat of 2022's weather just yet…

As well as the risk of tropical downpours, the race is likely to be one of the hottest of the year as afternoon highs reach around 30°C in mid-October.


5. Colder Valencia

Valencian Grand Prix, Valencia, 24–26 November

The expansion of the calendar to 21 races and rejigging of the order to put the Southeast Asian races together during October and November means the traditional season finale in Valencia, Spain takes place much later than usual, in late-November (compared to early-November in prior seasons).

The Valencian Grand Prix is renowned as one of the coolest events of the season, but temperatures are anticipated to be even cooler this year. Daytime temperatures in Valencia in late-November range between 9–17°C, which makes the event climatologically the coldest of the season. Expect tyre warm-up to be a big talking point, as is usual at Circuit Ricardo Tormo. 

Climatology But Not A Forecast

This climatological analysis represents the average weather conditions over the last 30 years on the scheduled race date and does not represent a specific forecast for 2023. Real-time weather forecasts are based on an ensemble of numerical weather prediction models, which incorporate observations of air pressure, temperature, humidity, winds, and many other variables to produce the best estimate of current and future conditions in the atmosphere at a range of time horizons.

For the latest MotoGP weather forecast, visit the dedicated MeteoMotorsport MotoGP Weather Centre, which provides an overview of the current weather conditions, the latest six-day forecast, and real-time satellite and radar imagery of the circuit, and follow MeteoMotorsport on Twitter.

Data Analysis Disclaimer: This analysis uses climatological data of the scheduled race date of the nearest available weather station to each race venue. Note that the climatological average daily temperature represents the average of the climatological daily minimum and climatological daily maximum temperatures. While most Grand Prix take place in the mid-afternoon and therefore coincide with typically the hottest part of the day, this is not always the case, especially for those races that take place at night. The stated climatological risk of precipitation is representative of the risk across the entire 24-hour period of the day (00:00 to 23:59) of the scheduled race date and therefore may not be representative of the approximate two-hour window of the race time.