The 2023 MotoGP season commences next weekend (Sunday 26 March) and comprises a record-breaking twenty-one races in eighteen countries and includes several meteorologically interesting locations. MeteoMotorsport has analysed the climatology of each race venue on its scheduled race day in 2023 to see what weather conditions are statistically most likely at each event this season.
Temperature
The Central/Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern races — India,
Kazakhstan, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Qatar — are unsurprisingly the most
likely to be the hottest races of the season with average daily highs of 28–33°C
and possible highs near 35°C. Furthermore, with the exception of Qatar which
takes place in the evening under floodlights, all these Grand Prix take place in
the early- to mid-afternoon at likely the hottest time of day— more on three of
these races in the Five Things to Watch section below.
At the other end of the temperature scale, the Valencian
Grand Prix is statistically likely to be the coldest race of the season as it
takes place late-November calendar in 2023 — more on this in the Five
Things to Watch section below.
The Australian and French Grand Prix – also known for their
changeable weather – follow Valencia as some of the coldest of the season. They
each have a climatological mean daily temperature below 15°C and a maximum
temperature of 15–18°C.
The climatological temperature range (average minimum to average maximum) of the scheduled race date at the nearest available weather station to each circuit.
|
Precipitation
Malaysia, Austria, and Japan rank as climatologically the races with the highest climatological risk of precipitation, with a 59, 40, and 38 percent risk of rain, respectively.
These are closely followed by Germany, the Netherlands, and Australia (each at 31
or 32 percent).
Unsurprisingly, the wet weather tyres are unlikely to be
needed in Qatar as its climatologically the driest race of the season with an
average risk of precipitation of just 4 percent. Behind Qatar, the four races in Iberia (Valencia,
Algarve, Jerez, Catalunya) are the next, with a statistical likelihood
of precipitation ranging between 13–16 percent.
The climatological precipitation risk of the scheduled race date at the nearest available weather station to each circuit |
Five things to look out for in 2023:
1. Hot and Dry Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan Grand Prix, Almaty, 7–9 July
The inaugural Kazakhstan Grand Prix takes place in
early-July as the series touches down in a new region of the world as the Sokol
International Racetrack in Central Asia joins the MotoGP calendar.
Kazakhstan experiences an extreme continental climate, with
long, hot summers and cold winters. Due to its location in Central Asia, the
region has a highly continental climate and large intraday and annual
fluctuations in temperature. This means that temperatures in winter (December
to February) are extremely cold, with national averages between -9°C and -12°C,
whereas summers are hot, with average national temperatures of 22–23°C in June,
July and August. Precipitation is low throughout the year, with average monthly
levels of between 14–30 mm, with most of that falling as snow between October
and March.
Given the existing European summer schedule and the travel arrangements
needed to get to Kazakhstan, and given the summer months are the only reasonable
time in which to hold the race without hostile weather conditions, series
organisers opted for a calendar slot in early-July before the summer break.
Daytime temperatures in Almaty in early-July reach highs of
near 30°C, which is likely to make it one of the hottest races of the season
alongside the Southeast Asian races, with overnight lows of around 17°C. July
is one of the region's driest months; the risk of precipitation averages around
17 percent in early-July. So, expect hot and dry conditions for the inaugural
race later this year.
2. Wamer Barcelona
Catalan Grand Prix, Catalunya, 1–3 September
The Catalan Grand Prix moves to an early-September slot in
2023 to fill the gap vacated by the Aargon Grand Prix that was omitted for the
first time since its introduction in 2010. Temperatures are expected to be 3–4°C
warmer in early-September compared to the early-June slot the race previously
held (a date that is now occupied by the F1 Spanish Grand Prix). Expect daily
highs of around 27°C in Barcelona and overnight lows of 18°C.
3. Blisteringly Hot Buddh
Indian Grand Prix, Buddh, 22–24 September
The other new venue to join the MotoGP calendar in 2023 is the
Buddh International Circuit in Greater Noida, India. The former home of the
Formula 1 Indian Grand Prix hosts its inaugural MotoGP race in late-September.
India has a tropical monsoon climate with large regional
variations in terms of rainfall and temperature. The Noida region experiences a
humid subtropical climate with a hot season between April and July and a cooler
season between December and February. In terms of precipitation, the wet season
extends from June to September.
Daytime highs in Greater Noida in late-September average around
33°C, which makes the Indian Grand Prix climatologically likely to be the hottest race of
2023. With overnight lows of 25°C and high humidity, expected the race to be
one of the most oppressive of the year. Here are the recently observed
temperatures on 24 September:
24 September 2022 — 27.0°C
24 September 2021 — 34.0°C
24 September 2020 — 25.5°C
24 September 2019 — 33.3°C
24 September 2018 — 27.6°C
Furthermore, the risk of precipitation in late-September is
around 20 percent, so don’t rule out the risk of a shower too.
4. Drier Indonesia
Indonesian Grand Prix, Mandalika, 13–15 October
Last year’s Indonesian Grand Prix, which took place in
late-March as the second round of the 2022 season, was delayed by well over an
hour due to heavy rain that left the track in an unraceable condition. The
thunderstorms abated and the race eventually got underway with a reduced race distance. The race was possibly best remembered for the
lightning that struck the circuit:
 |
| Lightning strikes the Mandalika Circuit at the 2022 Indonesian Grand Prix |
The 2023 race moves from late-March to mid-October to align it with MotoGP’s other races in Oceania and Southeast Asia. It also shifts the race from Lombok’s wet season (roughly November to April) to the end of the drier season (roughly April to November). This means the climatological risk of precipitation reduces from 40 in 2022 to 17 percent in 2023. Despite this, the tropics can still produce heavy downpours at any time of year, so don’t rule out a repeat of 2022's weather just yet…
As well as the risk of tropical downpours, the race is
likely to be one of the hottest of the year as afternoon highs reach around 30°C
in mid-October.
5. Colder Valencia
Valencian Grand Prix, Valencia, 24–26 November
The expansion of the calendar to 21 races and rejigging of
the order to put the Southeast Asian races together during October and November
means the traditional season finale in Valencia, Spain takes place much later
than usual, in late-November (compared to early-November in prior seasons).
The Valencian Grand Prix is renowned as one of the coolest
events of the season, but temperatures are anticipated to be even cooler this
year. Daytime temperatures in Valencia in late-November range between 9–17°C,
which makes the event climatologically the coldest of the season. Expect tyre
warm-up to be a big talking point, as is usual at Circuit Ricardo Tormo.
Climatology But Not A Forecast
This climatological analysis represents the average weather conditions over the last 30 years on the scheduled race date and does not represent a specific forecast for 2023. Real-time weather forecasts are based on an ensemble of numerical weather prediction models, which incorporate observations of air pressure, temperature, humidity, winds, and many other variables to produce the best estimate of current and future conditions in the atmosphere at a range of time horizons.
For the latest MotoGP weather forecast, visit the dedicated MeteoMotorsport MotoGP Weather Centre, which provides an overview of the current weather conditions, the latest six-day forecast, and real-time satellite and radar imagery of the circuit, and follow MeteoMotorsport on Twitter.
Data Analysis Disclaimer: This analysis uses climatological data of the scheduled race date of the nearest available weather station to each race venue. Note that the climatological average daily temperature represents the average of the climatological daily minimum and climatological daily maximum temperatures. While most Grand Prix take place in the mid-afternoon and therefore coincide with typically the hottest part of the day, this is not always the case, especially for those races that take place at night. The stated climatological risk of precipitation is representative of the risk across the entire 24-hour period of the day (00:00 to 23:59) of the scheduled race date and therefore may not be representative of the approximate two-hour window of the race time.
