The 2026 Formula 1 calendar retains 23 of last year’s 24 races, as a brand-new street circuit in Madrid replaces Imola. While most races retain their relative positions on the calendar, there are a few noticeable changes, each with varying impacts on the expected weather conditions during the race weekend.
MeteoMotorsport has analysed the climatology of each race venue on its scheduled race day in 2026 to see what weather conditions are statistically and climatologically most likely at each venue, and has compiled a list of five key things to look out for this season.
Temperature
Saudi Arabia remains the hottest race of the season based on climatological average daily maximum temperature data, slightly ahead of Singapore and Bahrain. However, all three events are held in the evening under floodlights, so the expected air temperatures during the race window are expected to range in the mid-to-high-20s.
Miami is climatologically the warmest daytime race, with its mid-afternoon start time in South Florida in early May likely to produce afternoon highs of around 29°C. Meanwhile, the new-for-2026 Spanish Grand Prix in Madrid is also likely to experience daytime highs into the high 20s, while the Hungarian, Italian, Azerbaijan, U.S., Qatar, and Abu Dhabi Grand Prix are climatologically projected to experience temperatures in the mid-to-high-20s.
China and Japan are the climatologically coldest races of the year, with average daytime maximum temperatures of just 14°C in mid and late March, respectively (see more below). The late-night race on the streets of Las Vegas in late November is statistically the third coldest of the year, although temperatures during the first three races (around 17–18°C) were notably warmer than climatological average. Canada’s earlier calendar slot in late May makes it climatologically the joint-fourth coldest race weekend of the season, together with Zandvoort, with an average daytime maximum temperature of 19°C.
Precipitation
Austria, Singapore, and Brazil maintain their status as the events most likely to observe precipitation, with a 46%, 44%, and 44% risk of rain on race day, respectively. Belgium (35%), Canada (35%), China (34%), and Japan (32%) closely follow.
Wet weather tyres are unlikely to be necessary at the Middle Eastern races in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or Abu Dhabi (all below 4%). Likewise, the desert climate in Las Vegas in late November yields just a 4% risk of rainfall.
Wind
Zandvoort, a coastal seaside resort on the North Sea, is climatologically the windiest race of the season, with an average wind speed of 19.6 km/hr. Baku, also known as the City of the Winds, is ranked second, with a climatological average wind speed of 19.4 km/hr in late September. Races in Shanghai, Miami, Suzuka, and Silverstone round out the top six windiest races.
At the other end of the scale, the climatologically calmest races of the year include the Austrian Grand Prix in the Austrian Alps, the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, and the Mexican Grand Prix in Mexico City.
Five Things to Watch
1. Canada Moves To Late May: Colder
Canadian Grand Prix, Montreal, 22–24 May 2026
In an effort to better regionalise the Formula 1 calendar, the Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal moves from its traditional mid June slot to late May, meaning it will run a few weeks after Miami (4–6 May 2026) and before the European leg of the season.
The race has been in its second or third weekend of June slot since 1982, and the 2026 race will mark the earliest in the calendar year that a Formula 1 race has been run in Canada; before 2026, the earliest the Canadian Grand Prix had taken place was 2 June 1991.
Unsurprisingly, bringing the race forward by a few weeks results in climatologically colder conditions. On 24 May, the average minimum temperature in Montreal is around 11°C and the average maximum temperature is around 19°C; this contrasts with temperatures in the high teens to low 20s in mid June. Based on climatology, expect temperatures about 4°C cooler in 2026.
The switch to late May results in a minor reduction in the climatological risk of precipitation—from 38% to 35%—but Canada remains one of the top five tracks for the risk of rain.
2. China and Japan Remain in March: Cold
Chinese Grand Prix, Shanghai, 13–15 March 2026 / Japanese Grand Prix, Suzuka, 27–29 March 2026
Australia, China, and Japan hosted the opening three races last year as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia moved back six weeks to mid April due to Ramadan. The same order is repeated for 2026.
We noted in 2025’s preview that cooler conditions in both China and Japan could result from this move, but the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix actually observed significantly warmer-than-average conditions for the time of year. Last year’s race in Shanghai on Sunday 23 March 2025 observed an air temperature of between 26.7°C and 27.9°C, which was well above the daily climatological range for that date of 8°C to 14°C. In contrast, the Japanese Grand Prix on Sunday 6 April 2025 observed an air temperature of between 14.4°C and 15.0°C, which was on par with the climatological maximum temperature of 15.0°C.
The Chinese and Japanese Grand Prix are run one weekend earlier in 2026 (on 15 March and 29 March, respectively), and these pair are statistically the climatologically coldest races of the season with an average minimum temperature of 7°C and average maximum temperature of 13°C. However, as we saw in Shanghai in 2025, this is by no means a guarantee, and warmer (or possibly even colder) weather could emerge over the race weekend. The climatological risk of precipitation is 34% and 32%, respectively.
For China, 2026 will be the earliest in the calendar year that the race has taken place. The race previously occupied a September or October slot between its inaugural race in 2004–08, an April slot in 2009–19 and in 2024, and a late March slot in 2025.
For Japan, 2026 will also be the earliest in the calendar year the race has taken place. For decades, the race was a staple of the latter stages of the season, with the race held in September, October, or November, before a move to early April for 2024 and 2025. 2026 sees the race hosted in March for the first time. Like in 2024 and 2025, the cherry blossom (sakura) season in Mie Prefecture is expected to align with the F1 race weekend, with peak blooms likely occurring in late March to early April.
3. Monaco Moves to Early June: No Real Change
Monaco Grand Prix, Monte-Carlo, 5–7 June 2026
For traditionalists, one of the biggest calendar changes in 2026 sees the Monaco Grand Prix move from its late May slot that typically coincided with the Ascension Day holiday. The last 20 editions of the Monaco Grand Prix have taken place in May, but starting from 2026 the event take place on the first weekend of June each year.
The one-week difference makes no discernible difference, climatologically. On 7 June, the average daily minimum temperature is 17°C, and the average daily maximum temperature is 22°C, roughly 1°C warmer than late May. The climatological risk of precipitation remains at 15%.
4. Debut Race in Madrid: Warm and Dry
Spanish Grand Prix, Madrid, 11–13 September 2026
The only new venue on the 2026 calendar is the new home of the Spanish Grand Prix on a purpose-built street circuit in the capital, Madrid. Climatologically, on 13 September in Madrid, the average minimum temperature is 14°C, the average maximum temperature is 28°C, and the risk of precipitation is just 10%. So a warm day into the mid 20s with mostly blue skies is to be expected.
5. The 2027 Calendar
Portimão and Istanbul replacing Zandvoort and Catalunya?
While not strictly related to 2026, we are also eagerly awaiting confirmation of the 2027 F1 calendar and where the returning and rotating races will fit into the calendar.
We know that the Dutch Grand Prix will not continue beyond 2026 and that the Portuguese Grand Prix at Portimão will rejoin the calendar for 2027 and 2028. Whether Portimão takes Zandvoort’s August date or is slotted earlier into the European leg (e.g., June) is something to look out for, as it would offer up a contrast in terms of climatological weather conditions in southern Portugal.
We also know that from 2027, the Circuit de Catalunya-Barcelona and Spa-Francorchamps will enter a rotating deal until 2032, with the Spanish venue sitting out 2027. With this one spot open on the calendar, there are rumours that the Turkish Grand Prix could return to the calendar in 2027, too. The nine previous editions of the Turkish Grand Prix have been run in a number of different months, including August (2005–07), May (2008, 2010–11), June (2009), November (2020), and October (2021). Could it double up with Azerbaijan in September as a far eastern European double-header? — watch this space!
We will have a full breakdown as soon as the calendar is out, so stay tuned!
Climatology, But Not A Forecast
This climatological analysis represents the average weather conditions over the last 30 years on the scheduled race date and does not represent a specific forecast for 2026. Real-time weather forecasts are based on an ensemble of numerical weather prediction models, which incorporate observations of air pressure, temperature, humidity, winds, and many other variables to produce the best estimate of current and future conditions in the atmosphere at a range of time horizons.
This analysis uses climatological data of the scheduled race date of the nearest available weather station to each race venue. Note that the climatological average daily temperature represents the average of the climatological daily minimum and climatological daily maximum temperatures. While most Grand Prix take place in the mid-afternoon and therefore coincide with the hottest part of the day, this is not always the case, especially for those races that take place at night. The stated climatological risk of precipitation is representative of the risk across the entire 24-hour period of the day (00:00 to 23:59) of the scheduled race date and therefore may not be representative of the approximate two-hour window of the race time.
For the latest Formula 1 weather forecast, visit the dedicated MeteoMotorsport F1 Weather Centre, which provides an overview of the current weather conditions, the latest six-day forecast, and real-time satellite and radar imagery of the circuit. For the latest forecast information, follow MeteoMotorsport on Twitter/X, Threads, Instagram, and Bluesky. Visit the F1 Weather Centre for the latest automated daily forecast and satellite and radar maps.
